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30 July 2006: We couldn't understand why hopeless Joan Ryan was answering questions on ID cards in the Commons in the last days before the recess. She was so pitifully bad we assumed John Reid had decided the cards weren't ever going to see the light of day (that the Treasury was going to pull the plug on them, as it had with police force integration).

But now we see that the apocalyptic migration report leaked (today, Sunday) to the press, on government instructions, it wouldn't be surprising, was written by Joan Ryan.

Illegal entrants block hospital beds, take benefits without making contributions, depress wages. They may also get the right to be housed by councils.

The only way of controlling this, the Government will say, will be ID cards. The Joan Ryan figure will be pitching both. 

Terrorism never justified ID cards; those arguments never survived in the Commons. However, benefits-for-illegal-immigrants . . . that has a lot more pushing power. 

In 10 years we may have a net 7.5 million new migrants living in Britain. Whatever part of the political spectrum you hail from, that is impossible to ignore.

Frank Field says: "No country can maintain freedom and order under the pressure parts of Britain are now experiencing.

I wonder which of those qualities governments would willingly sacrifice first?

30 July 2006: Bellwether. A male sheep, usually castrated, hung with a bell, to make clear the direction in which the flock should go.

Jack Straw. Ex-foreign secretary securing his position in a Brown government by marking out an advance position in the direction he thinks Brown will go. "There you are at last, Gordon! What took you so long? Shall I make the introductions?'

It's not a bad bet. Gordon is going to be soooo unpopular when he takes over. He's hoping for a honeymoon period (what was yours like, incidentally? My honeymoons have been terrible) but we've all known each other too long for much pause in the attrition. He's going to be presiding over his spending slowdown and a fractious, overpaid public sector. And he'll be not one whit less Scottish than he is today.

What can he do to reinvent his brand? If Straw is right, an eye-catching initiative on Islam will be more important than the "Britishness" bollocks that wrongfooted him earlier this year.

1) Pull the troops out of Iraq.

2) Produce an impression of an independent foreign policy, perhaps with some sort of two-state initiative focusing on Israeli settlers.

3) Quid pro quo this with a slow down in spending support for conservative Islamic groups at home, and passing some laws to help victims of arranged marriages.

But - then again - unless it's already been scheduled and cleared with the US, an Iraq pull-out may be too bold for Bruin. He caved in to the military establishment in Trident well before he had to, remember.