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Who, then, will be in the running and what are their chances?

Charles Clarke. When the Labour party decides to commit hari-kiri, they will use Mr Clarke as the instrument of disembowelment

Jacqui Smith. No. Just . . . no. No more likely than Des Browne. Or Hillary Benn (whose staring, mad-chicken eyes terrified people during the election for deputy). Douglas Alexander and Geoff Hoon in their different ways are not suitable candidates, at least that needs no explanation.

Harriet Harman, Tessa Jowell, Hazel Blears, Ruth Kelly, Yvette Cooper. These promising raw materials need a talented surgeon to stitch their best features together into a candidate. That candidate could make a useful deputy. 

Andy Burnham? People talk about Burnham as if he were a contender. He is so lacking in distinguishing features he makes John Major look like a bird of paradise. James Purnell is the other name you hear with Burnham. He certainly thinks he could do it. Truth to tell, he does have something. But there's something spoilt about him, almost petulant. Nonetheless, his odds deserve to be shorter than Burnham. But then, so do mine. 

John Hutton? Clever, talented, not unattractive in person, but a bit peculiar on television. Not prime ministerial timber.

Alan Johnson. Ruled himself out of the running saying he "wasn't up to it". A very attractive proposition, it makes you want to vote for him. But then, he did cave in on public service pension entitlements. And let us not forget he was beaten by Harriet Harman for deputy leader. Nice fellow but he won't do.

Alan Milburn. Marginalised himself in the House by refusing to sit with Labour backbenchers. For years in his exile, he'd only stand around the Speaker's chair. The first time I saw him sit down again was when he'd been recalled to be chancellor of Duchy of Lancaster. So he'd be reckless to count on the support of his colleagues. He's clever though, attractive in his way, talks English, but isolation is dangerous and he has become a little eccentric in his speaking style.

Ed Miliband. Definitely one to watch, but not this time round. Attractive, plausible, whole-hearted. He's a Dudley Moore to his brother's Peter Cook (but it was Dudley that got the girls and the Hollywood contracts). Who knows what the future holds for Ed?

David Miliband. The great white hope of New Labour. He is the one, they croon cultishly, and they may be right. They may not be, too, because there is something geeky about him, and not just in the haircut. He makes funny faces to himself, like an eight-year-old. Do people mind? Will middle England warm to him? Frankly, I don't know. Will they take dictation from him? No. No, they won't do that but he makes a reasonable opponent for Cameron. He's young, personable, highly intelligent, very decent (his performance in the Lisbon debate, whatever you thought of the event itself, was a credit to Parliament). Sense of humour, breath of fresh air, impeccable values for those who like that sort of thing. And he is growing visibly in authority month by month. I'm talking myself into it, I notice, but I can't help thinking those old bruisers and battlers in the Labout movement (and in Parliament) don't look up to him. I don't think it's for him, this time round.

John Reid. He is the right stuff. He has the qualities to be prime minister. Intelligent, combative, will answer questions when asked, homme serieux. He's a Churchill tank in debate. But he's Scots and I don't know how that goes over in England these days. People say the PLP isn't that fond of him. He might have waited to be sacked, too, rather than handing the position over to Brown's absurd nominee.

Which leaves us with (did you think I'd forgotten?) Jack Straw. I've got fifty quid on him I should say, at 16-1. He'll pitch himself as a "caretaker prime minister" to suggest he won't be there long. He's pleasant to look at, he talks English, he can play the prime ministerial part, the House likes him, he can reassure the Labour party, he can appeal to the English up and down the spectrum in his classless way. But above all, I bet on him because he's cunning. As soon as he was sacked by Blair he made best friends with Brown and managed his election so successfully it turned into a coronation. He is inconspicuously on manoeuvres. Now that Brown's in trouble you don't hear a peep out of Straw (failure is infectious, you have to keep your distance). 

Two years ago, Jack Dromey made the "shock disclosure" that he didn't know anything about those loans made to the Labour party (loans that were said to be related to peerages for the donors). Dromey's assertion was widely believed, though it was tantamount to saying they'd be better off with a 12-year-old girl as treasurer of the Labour party. 

He was defended by Jeremy Beecham, chairman of Labour's governing body the NEC: It was "absolutely clear that the reasons that NEC officers, including the elected party treasurer, did not know about the loans had nothing to do with any failings on their part". (If you can follow the triple negative.) 

Gordon used the loans scandal to hurry Blair on his way. And here we are, as we so often are with Gordon, watching the whrligigs of time bringing in their revenges.